Epidemiologic Reviews Copyright © 2005 by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health All rights reserved
ARTICLES |
A Stitch in Time: Improving Public Health Early Warning Systems for Extreme Weather Events
From Exponent, Inc., Alexandria, VA
Correspondence to Dr. Kristie L. Ebi, Exponent, Inc., 1800 Diagonal Road, Suite 300, Alexandria, VA 22314 (e-mail: kebi@exponent.com).
Received for publication July 30, 2004; accepted for publication January 18, 2005.
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INTRODUCTION |
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Extreme weather events, particularly floods and heat waves, annually affect millions of people and cause billions of dollars of damage. In 2003, in Europe, Canada, and the United States, floods and storms caused 15 deaths and US$2.97 billion in total damages, and the extended heat wave in Europe caused more than 20,000 excess deaths (1
); the impacts in developing countries were substantially larger. There is a growing body of scientific research suggesting that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely to increase over the coming decades as a consequence of global climate change (2). These events cannot be prevented, but their consequences can be reduced by taking advantage of advances in meteorologic forecasting in the development and implementation of early warning systems that target vulnerable regions and populations.
The skill with which weather and climatic events can be forecast has increased significantly over the past
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TRENDS IN EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS |
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THE PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACTS OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS |
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NEED FOR AND LIMITATIONS OF PUBLIC HEALTH SURVEILLANCE |
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EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS TO REDUCE MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY |
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COMPONENTS OF A PUBLIC HEALTH EARLY WARNING SYSTEM |
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Meteorologic identification and forecasting of extreme events
Prediction of possible health outcomes
Response plan
Where the response plan will be implemented. When interventions will be implemented, including thresholds for action. What interventions will be implemented. How the response plan will be implemented. To whom the interventions will be communicated. System evaluation
Monitoring and evaluation plan. Economic assessment of the cost-effectiveness of the system.
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CONCLUSIONS |
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