Skip Navigation



Epidemiologic Reviews Advance Access published online on June 1, 2006
Epidemiologic Reviews, doi:10.1093/epirev/mxj006
This Article
Right arrow FREE Full Text (PDF) Freely available
Right arrow All Versions of this Article:
28/1/88    most recent
mxj006v1
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Similar articles in PubMed
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Add to My Personal Archive
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrowRequest Permissions
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Dasbach, E. J.
Right arrow Articles by Insinga, R. P.
Right arrow Search for Related Content
PubMed
Right arrow PubMed Citation
Right arrow Articles by Dasbach, E. J.
Right arrow Articles by Insinga, R. P.
Social Bookmarking
Add to CiteULike   Add to Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us  
What's this?

Epidemiologic Reviews Copyright © 2006 by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health All rights reserved; printed in U.S.A.
Accepted March 30, 2006

Article

Mathematical Models for Predicting the Epidemiologic and Economic Impact of Vaccination against Human Papillomavirus Infection and Disease

Erik J. Dasbach 1 *, Elamin H. Elbasha 1, and Ralph P. Insinga 1

1 From Merck Research Laboratories, Blue Bell, PA

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
Erik J. Dasbach, E-mail: erik_dasbach{at}merck.com


  Abstract

Infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) is the primary cause of cervical cancer, other anogenital cancers, genital warts, and recurrent respiratory papillomatosis. Clinical studies have demonstrated that a prophylactic HPV vaccine can prevent infection, genital warts, and the precancerous lesions that lead to cervical cancer. Given the absence of data on the long-term effectiveness of HPV vaccination, a number of mathematical models have been developed to provide insight to policy makers by projecting the long-term epidemiologic and economic consequences of vaccination and evaluate alternative vaccination policies. This paper reviews the state of these models. Three types of HPV mathematical models have been reported in the literature: cohort, population dynamic, and hybrid. All have demonstrated that vaccination can significantly reduce the incidence of cervical cancer in the long term. However, only the cohort and hybrid models have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of vaccination strategies for preventing cervical cancer. These models have generally shown that vaccinating females can be cost-effective. None has accounted for the potential benefits of vaccinating the population to reduce the burden of recurrent respiratory papillomatosis and cancers of the vagina, vulva, anus, penis, and head/neck. Given that only the population dynamic model can account for both the direct and indirect (i.e., herd immunity effects) benefits of vaccination in the population, future research should focus on further development of dynamic models by expanding the range of epidemiologic outcomes tracked and including the ability to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative vaccination policies.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis; economics; papillomavirus, human; vaccines.
Add to CiteULike CiteULike   Add to Connotea Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us Del.icio.us    What's this?


This article has been cited by other articles:


Home page
 BMJHome page
J. J Kim and S. J Goldie
Cost effectiveness analysis of including boys in a human papillomavirus vaccination programme in the United States
BMJ, October 8, 2009; 339(oct08_2): b3884 - b3884.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 Med Decis MakingHome page
C. T. Bauch, A. M. Anonychuk, T. Van Effelterre, B. Z. Pham, and M. F. Merid
Incorporating Herd Immunity Effects into Cohort Models of Vaccine Cost-Effectiveness
Med Decis Making, September 1, 2009; 29(5): 557 - 569.
[Abstract] [PDF]

Home page
 J. Immunol.Home page
L. M. Fahey, A. B. Raff, D. M. Da Silva, and W. M. Kast
Reversal of Human Papillomavirus-Specific T Cell Immune Suppression through TLR Agonist Treatment of Langerhans Cells Exposed to Human Papillomavirus Type 16
J. Immunol., March 1, 2009; 182(5): 2919 - 2928.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USAHome page
S. Basu, G. B. Chapman, and A. P. Galvani
Integrating epidemiology, psychology, and economics to achieve HPV vaccination targets
PNAS, December 2, 2008; 105(48): 19018 - 19023.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 NEJMHome page
J. J. Kim and S. J. Goldie
Health and Economic Implications of HPV Vaccination in the United States
N. Engl. J. Med., August 21, 2008; 359(8): 821 - 832.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 BMJHome page
J. J Kim
Human papillomavirus vaccination in the UK
BMJ, July 17, 2008; 337(jul17_2): a842 - a842.
[Full Text]

Home page
 Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev.Home page
R. P. Insinga, K.-L. Liaw, L. G. Johnson, and M. M. Madeleine
A Systematic Review of the Prevalence and Attribution of Human Papillomavirus Types among Cervical, Vaginal, and Vulvar Precancers and Cancers in the United States
Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., July 1, 2008; 17(7): 1611 - 1622.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev.Home page
R. P. Insinga, E. J. Dasbach, E. H. Elbasha, K.-L. Liaw, and E. Barr
Incidence and Duration of Cervical Human Papillomavirus 6, 11, 16, and 18 Infections in Young Women: An Evaluation from Multiple Analytic Perspectives
Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., April 1, 2007; 16(4): 709 - 715.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 Epidemiol RevHome page
M. A. Ibrahim
Editorial: Vaccines and Public Health
Epidemiol. Rev., August 1, 2006; 28(1): 1 - 2.
[Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 Am J EpidemiolHome page
A. R. Hinman, W. A. Orenstein, and L. E. Rodewald
Vaccines--Victories and Challenges
Am. J. Epidemiol., August 1, 2006; 164(3): 197 - 199.
[Full Text] [PDF]


Disclaimer: Please note that abstracts for content published before 1996 were created through digital scanning and may therefore not exactly replicate the text of the original print issues. All efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, but the Publisher will not be held responsible for any remaining inaccuracies. If you require any further clarification, please contact our Customer Services Department.